Pacquiao vs. Cotto: Where Perception May Not Be Reality
Published Nov 10 2009 by: Scott Levinson | Follow us on Facebook & on Twitter
Here are some generally accepted beliefs of insiders and handicappers going into the upcoming mega-blockbuster Pacquiao vs. Cotto fight. The following is merely an exploration of the scope of different possibilities. Let’s take a look at four of the more generally accepted “truths” and see if there’s a decent possibility that they have it wrong.
Generally Accepted Truth #1: Cotto Is Not What He Once Was
Perception: Cotto is an old 28. A long run fighting top guys has taken its toll. The Margarito beating, in particular, sent him on an irreversible slide down the peak. The Clottey fight saw Cotto barely able to win against an opponent he would have dominated a few years ago.
But Not so Fast: He has fought a lot of tough guys, and the Margarito beating was harsh, but what real evidence is there of him slipping? A blowout against Michael Jennings in which he looked pretty good? A close win against Clottey? We’re talking about a win, mind you, against a top guy in the division that no one wants to fight, a guy that looks like a super middleweight standing next to Pacquiao. I remember almost everyone saying Evander Holyfield was shot before he fought Tyson, and there was significantly more evidence suggesting that to be true than there is here.
Generally Accepted Truth #2: Pacquiao’s Recent Form Is Off the Charts
Perception: There’s nobody around right now at welterweight or below who can beat him, with the possible exception of Mayweather. His win over De La Hoya showed he could deal easily with bigger guys. He has become a significantly better fighter since the second Marquez fight, not losing a round while completely decimating his opposition.
But Not so Fast: Closely examine the growth in Pacquiao’s reputation since the second Marquez fight. Sure, he was already a superstar and a #1 pound-for-pound claimant, but in less than two years, his mystique has grown to almost Ali-like proportions. This is significantly based on wins over a top-five lightweight in David Diaz and two guys (De La Hoya and Hatton) who were past their primes and in perhaps their last fight.
They were exciting, eye-catching wins, but do they warrant such an increase in hype and stature? Were most of his opponents even before moving up to 135 in their primes? Are we so hungry for a mega-superstar, a great fighter that actually provides thrills as Pacquiao does, that we have wrongfully begun to acknowledge and value excitement over merit? Sure, he’s earned it. He’s one of the best ever, but have we gone overboard?
Generally Accepted Truth #3: Pacquiao Will Have No Problems At This Weight
Perception: Pacquiao is not bound by the same constraints other fighters are in regards to weight. From flyweight to welterweight, he has excelled, and there is no reason to think he will hit the wall now. His whitewash against De La Hoya, a onetime middleweight titlist, showed he has no problem handling bigger opponents.
But Not so Fast: Are we taking a leap of faith with the weight issue? Can we reasonably expect a former flyweight titlist to be a juggernaut at welterweight? What precedent is there for this? Are we basing this on Pacquiao’s dominance over De La Hoya, who brought almost nothing to the table that night? Did he not struggle to win a razor-close bout at junior lightweight a mere 18 months ago? Since leaving 130, whom has he really beaten to suggest he can handle top welterweights with ease?
Generally Accepted Truth #4: Cotto Is Not Truly a Great Fighter
Perception: While very good, Cotto has fallen just short of greatness. He caught Mosley and Judah at the right time. And while doubt exists over the legitimacy of the Margarito fight, he did sustain a clear beating, before capitulating in the 11th round. Great fighters don’t do that. Great fighters don’t have trouble beating the Joshua Clotteys of the world.
But Not So Fast: A closer examination of his record does suggest greatness. Many of the opponents he beat were top-notch, and are still factors in the game: Mosley slaughtered Margarito after losing to Cotto, Quintana went on to beat Paul Williams, and Malignaggi, Torres, Judah, and Clottey are still in the mix to varying degrees.
The loss to Margarito was a bad luck situation for Cotto, and not just for the possible loaded-gloves factor. The version of Margarito that fought Cotto was the best Margarito we have ever seen in the ring. He almost struck up an image of Marvin Hagler in the Hearns fight, a man who on that particular night, was not going to be denied, a man you would have needed a baseball bat to dissuade. Margarito that night just might have been a handful for any welterweight in history. The shame in that loss has been overblown in the minds of intolerant fans. All great fighters lose, especially when taking on one tough assignment after another.
Final Thoughts
If perception and reality were tied together as tightly as one might think, we would all be making money gambling on boxing. It’s not that easy, and many times we see the connection between perception and reality evaporate in the ring before our eyes.
This writer is picking Pacquiao by late-rounds stoppage, but if Cotto wins, it will likely be because one or more of the aforementioned perceptions was not correct. It wouldn’t be the first time. Enjoy the fight!
Photo Credit: Image: Pro Boxing Fans; Photos: Mike Gonzalez (Pacquiao) & Wikimedia User Javabeans (Cotto); Creative Commons 3.0 License
Be sure to keep checking in with ProBoxing-Fans.com for continued coverage on everything related to Pacquiao vs. Cotto. You can take a look at our Pacquiao vs. Cotto preview and prediction and then on the night of the fight check in for Pacquiao Cotto results.
Scott, you’re playing safe! your bet is on pacquiao and yet you don’t believe in his rise to welterweight division. you said that his journey from flyweight to welterweight has no precedent and therefore his fight with Cotto is doubtful. Scott, history is full of achievements without precedent because they are trailblazers and Pacquiao is one of the trailblazer in boxing history. So, your analysis with Pacquiao rise is based your lack of understanding with history.
There you are again Anti Pacman! Aw c’mon,why is it that before every Pacman’s fight they would always say that Pacman’s opponent would crush him but when the Pac beat them to dust they will alwaya say it’s because the opponents are past their prime? For god’s sake stop fabricating excuses!Just admit that the Pac rocks!
“If perception and reality were tied together as tightly as one might think, we would all be making money gambling on boxing”
Wrong. Many made money betting on Pacman.
Excuses, excuses, excuses on why ODLH and Hatton lost.
Excuses, excuses, excuses on why Cotto loses on Saturday.
This guy is a Cotto fan…
My Perception: You are definitely one very confused writer. You thought very hard to come out with sensible analysis of the fans perceptions, only to hit a brick wall head on at the end.
But Not So Fast: A closer examination proves you have a brain “two more” and wishes to spread the virus to us boxing fans.
Prescription: Get a life other than writing. I heard PacMan is still hiring to add more people to his entourage. That’s a no brainer!
TRUTH as I always see will prevail Mr. Livenson you really a good writer you do it honestly your views were clear but you some question that must be answered first by you so we can react, why is mayweather exceptional for paquiao to beat him what are some reasons in your mind, for me the clear answer is mayweather’s style of boxing is tailored type for paquiao a runner and the pursuader that is why many wants thier fight to happened to know how far can mayweather runaway, or how many punch can paquaio throw to destroy his defense and can he slug with paquiao? those
question is yet to answer
Pacman may have beaten the over the hill Oscar and not so talented Hatton but the manner in which he beat them makes it spectacular. Those 2 guys never had a shot, in fact they didn’t even hit Manny a single punch that they could write their Mom about.
OK PWA (Paquiao Worldwide Army), another site to boycott. he sees the greatness of cotto. but when it comes to pacquiao’s greatness, this site downplays it.
probosing-fans and nowboxing website only uses pacs name to generate hits, so dont click their sites when yous see it on your browsers!!!!
I’m a pacman follower but I agree with most of your analysis. It brings to ground overstatements of odds in favor of pacman. Yours is based on “historical objecyive conditions.” I believe its a pacman KO on the first three if he aptly applies his speed or a TKO on the next three. But it’s a Cotto victory if it goes beyond the sixth round.
Cotto can reverse his impending loss on 11/14 if he can use the best weapon in his arsenal… THE LOW BLOW… remmember the Juddah fight?