Fight Pick & Preview – Froch vs. Groves Rematch:
The most hotly anticipated rematch in boxing isn’t Timothy Bradley vs. Manny Pacquiao II (not unless you are a Filipino, that is), but instead is the all-English clash between super middleweight ironman Carl Froch and the dragon slayer, “Saint” George Groves.
This rematch has it all: resolving a controversial outcome in the first fight; a world title at stake; and national bragging rights. On top of that, a win for Froch cements him as the #2 168-pounder in the world, after Andre Ward. A win for Groves propels him into the sport’s elite.
There are plenty of opinions as to who ought to be the favorite in this showdown, but I always think the best place to start in deciding who to pick is to start with the individuals, in and of themselves.
George Groves (19-1, 15 KOs)
5’11 1/2″ tall, 72″ reach, 25 years old
Former British and Commonwealth Super Middleweight Champion (vacated)
If George Groves has shown us anything, it is that he is a truly well-rounded boxer-puncher who belongs in the upper half of the super middleweight rankings. He edged James DeGale by a hair, whipped an (admittedly declining) Glen Johnson; and came close to humbling Carl Froch in their first outing.
Groves has good power, good speed, solid durability, and sound technical skills. If he has any weaknesses, it’s a merely average defense, compromised in large part by inadequate head movement; and a out-of-ring fragility making him injury prone.
Carl Froch (32-2, 23 KOs)
6’1″ tall, 75″ reach, 36 years old
Current IBF and (fake) WBA Super Middleweight Champion; two-time former super middleweight champion
Froch’s qualities are well-established: toughness, strength, two-fisted punching power, solid jab, gritty will to win. Against this, his defense is porous, and it’s no exaggeration to say his offense is his defense. Although Froch has a serviceable jab, he lacks the toolkit to turn boxer-puncher against anyone who isn’t a puncher, swarmer, or brawler, and that leaves him open to being outboxed by opponents who are more skilled (Groves, Kessler), slicker and more athletic (Dirrell, Taylor), or both (Ward).
Froch vs. Groves II Preview & Analysis
Who wins this fight hinges on two questions: what really happened in the first bout, and who can improve on the first bout. In the previous encounter, Groves dropped Froch hard with a surprise, hard and early shot in the 1st Round. Judging from all reports, Froch never completely recovered from that early knockdown, as he remained fuzzy and uncoordinated for the next several rounds. Groves piled on the points, but took damage doing so, and Froch was getting back into the fight in the later rounds. Finally, Froch hurt Groves, leading to an unwarranted stoppage.
So my interpretation is that Groves was able to box Froch more effectively than he otherwise would have been able to do, principally because he got lucky and hurt Froch while the ironman was still cold. That sort of thing happens in boxing all the time, and it’s the hardest kind of bell ringing in the sport to come back from. Despite this, Froch was clearly gaining later on. Ergo, logic dictates that if Froch doesn’t get hurt early, he ought to be able to at least repeat his attritional performance, if not better it.
As previously described, Froch always has problems with guys who are better at the boxing side of pugilism than he is. He has also succeeded in beating most of them, despite his difficulties. Sometimes he wins by the narrowest of margins, but he usually pulls out the win. I suspect this outing will be no different, but there is a fair chance that Groves will bag enough rounds to win a Split Decision.
Froch vs. Groves II Prediction
I think Froch will do what Froch does, namely come out and take the fight to Groves. He isn’t going to be cautious, but he won’t get cold cocked again as a result of that. Groves will still win most of the early and middle rounds of the fight, but he won’t sweep them like he did the first time around.
Froch will come on towards the end, as a tiring Groves finds he doesn’t have the stuff to keep moving and punching enough to stop Froch from steadily coming forward. A late knockdown puts Froch over the top on the two of the scorecards, but Groves shows enough maturity to hang on, survive, and reach the final bell.
Prediction: Carl Froch SD12 George Groves
